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Forecast of the evolution of the contagious disease caused by novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China

Published 12 Feb 2020 in q-bio.PE and stat.AP | (2002.04739v1)

Abstract: The outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China has caused a viral epidemic affecting tens of thousands of persons. Though the danger of this epidemic is evident, the statistical analysis of data offered in this paper indicates that the increase in new cases in China will stabilize in the coming days or weeks. Our forecast could serve to evaluate risks and control the evolution of this disease.

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