Bayesian Learning of Causal Relationships for System Reliability

Abstract: Causal theory is now widely developed with many applications to medicine and public health. However within the discipline of reliability, although causation is a key concept in this field, there has been much less theoretical attention. In this paper, we will demonstrate how some aspects of established causal methodology can be translated via trees, and more specifically chain event graphs, into domain of reliability theory to help the probability modeling of failures. We further show how various domain specific concepts of causality particular to reliability can be imported into more generic causal algebras and so demonstrate how these disciplines can inform each other. This paper is informed by a detailed analysis of maintenance records associated with a large electrical distribution company. Causal hypotheses embedded within these natural language texts are extracted and analyzed using the new graphical framework we introduced here.