Building a COVID-19 Vulnerability Index

Abstract: COVID-19 is an acute respiratory disease that has been classified as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Characterization of this disease is still in its early stages. However, it is known to have high mortality rates, particularly among individuals with preexisting medical conditions. Creating models to identify individuals who are at the greatest risk for severe complications due to COVID-19 will be useful for outreach campaigns to help mitigate the disease's worst effects. While information specific to COVID-19 is limited, a model using complications due to other upper respiratory infections can be used as a proxy to help identify those individuals who are at the greatest risk. We present the results for three models predicting such complications, with each model increasing predictive effectiveness at the expense of ease of implementation.