A tale of two vortices: how numerical ergodic theory and transfer operators reveal fundamental changes to coherent structures in non-autonomous dynamical systems

Abstract: Coherent structures are spatially varying regions which disperse minimally over time and organise motion in non-autonomous systems. This work develops and implements algorithms providing multilayered descriptions of time-dependent systems which are not only useful for locating coherent structures, but also for detecting time windows within which these structures undergo fundamental structural changes, such as merging and splitting events. These algorithms rely on singular value decompositions associated to Ulam type discretisations of transfer operators induced by dynamical systems, and build on recent developments in multiplicative ergodic theory. Furthermore, they allow us to investigate various connections between the evolution of relevant singular value decompositions and dynamical features of the system. The approach is tested on models of periodically and quasi-periodically driven systems, as well as on a geophysical dataset corresponding to the splitting of the Southern Polar Vortex.