Correspondence between temporal correlations in time series, inverse problems, and the Spherical Model

Abstract: In this paper we employ methods from Statistical Mechanics to model temporal correlations in time series. We put forward a methodology based on the Maximum Entropy principle to generate ensembles of time series constrained to preserve part of the temporal structure of an empirical time series of interest. We show that a constraint on the lag-one autocorrelation can be fully handled analytically, and corresponds to the well known Spherical Model of a ferromagnet. We then extend such a model to include constraints on more complex temporal correlations by means of perturbation theory, showing that this leads to substantial improvements in capturing the lag-one autocorrelation in the variance. We apply our approach on synthetic data, and illustrate how it can be used to formulate expectations on the future values of a data generating process.