Different scenarios in the Dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 Infection: an adapted ODE model

Abstract: A mathematical model to calculate the transmissibility of SARS-Cov-2 in Wuhan City was developed and published recently by Tian-Mu Chen et al., Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3. This paper improves this model in order to study the effect of different scenarios that include actions to contain the pandemic, such as isolation and quarantine of infected and at-risk people. Comparisons made between the different scenarios show that the progress of the infection is found to strongly depend on measures taken in each case. The particular case of Brazil was studied, showing the dynamics of the first days of the infection in comparison with the different scenarios contained in the model and the reality of the Brazilian health system was exposed, in front of each possible scenario. The relative evolution of the number of new infection and reported cases was employed to estimate a containment date of the pandemic. Finally, the basic reproduction number R0 values were estimated for each scenario, ranging from 4.04 to 1.12.