Effective lockdown and role of hospital-based COVID-19 transmission in some Indian states: An outbreak risk analysis

Abstract: There are several reports in India that indicate hospitals and quarantined centers are COVID-19 hotspots. In the absence of efficient contact tracing tools, Govt. and the policymakers may not be paying attention to the risk of hospital-based transmission. To explore more on this important route and its possible impact on lockdown effect, we developed a mechanistic model with hospital-based transmission. Using daily notified COVID-19 cases from six states (Maharashtra, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Uttar Pradesh) and overall India, we estimated several important parameters of the model. Moreover, we provided an estimation of the basic ($R_{0}$), the community ($R_{C}$), and the hospital ($R_{H}$) reproduction numbers for those seven locations. To obtain a reliable forecast of future COVID-19 cases, a BMA post-processing technique is used to ensemble the mechanistic model with a hybrid statistical model. Using the ensemble model, we forecast COVID-19 notified cases (daily and cumulative) from May 3, 2020, till May 20, 2020, under five different lockdown scenarios in the mentioned locations. Our analysis of the mechanistic model suggests that most of the new COVID-19 cases are currently undetected in the mentioned seven locations. Furthermore, a global sensitivity analysis of four epidemiologically measurable & controllable parameters on $R_{0}$ and as well on the lockdown effect, indicate that if appropriate preventive measures are not taken immediately, a much larger COVID-19 outbreak may trigger from hospitals and quarantined centers. In most of the locations, our ensemble model forecast indicates a substantial percentage of increase in the COVID-19 notified cases in the coming weeks in India. Based on our results, we proposed a containment policy that may reduce the threat of a larger COVID-19 outbreak in the coming days.