How Twitter Data Sampling Biases U.S. Voter Behavior Characterizations

Abstract: Online social media are key platforms for the public to discuss political issues. As a result, researchers have used data from these platforms to analyze public opinions and forecast election results. Recent studies reveal the existence of inauthentic actors such as malicious social bots and trolls, suggesting that not every message is a genuine expression from a legitimate user. However, the prevalence of inauthentic activities in social data streams is still unclear, making it difficult to gauge biases of analyses based on such data. In this paper, we aim to close this gap using Twitter data from the 2018 U.S. midterm elections. Hyperactive accounts are over-represented in volume samples. We compare their characteristics with those of randomly sampled accounts and self-identified voters using a fast and low-cost heuristic. We show that hyperactive accounts are more likely to exhibit various suspicious behaviors and share low-credibility information compared to likely voters. Random accounts are more similar to likely voters, although they have slightly higher chances to display suspicious behaviors. Our work provides insights into biased voter characterizations when using online observations, underlining the importance of accounting for inauthentic actors in studies of political issues based on social media data.