Predicting Clinical Outcomes in COVID-19 using Radiomics and Deep Learning on Chest Radiographs: A Multi-Institutional Study

Abstract: We predict mechanical ventilation requirement and mortality using computational modeling of chest radiographs (CXRs) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. This two-center, retrospective study analyzed 530 deidentified CXRs from 515 COVID-19 patients treated at Stony Brook University Hospital and Newark Beth Israel Medical Center between March and August 2020. DL and machine learning classifiers to predict mechanical ventilation requirement and mortality were trained and evaluated using patient CXRs. A novel radiomic embedding framework was also explored for outcome prediction. All results are compared against radiologist grading of CXRs (zone-wise expert severity scores). Radiomic and DL classification models had mAUCs of 0.78+/-0.02 and 0.81+/-0.04, compared with expert scores mAUCs of 0.75+/-0.02 and 0.79+/-0.05 for mechanical ventilation requirement and mortality prediction, respectively. Combined classifiers using both radiomics and expert severity scores resulted in mAUCs of 0.79+/-0.04 and 0.83+/-0.04 for each prediction task, demonstrating improvement over either artificial intelligence or radiologist interpretation alone. Our results also suggest instances where inclusion of radiomic features in DL improves model predictions, something that might be explored in other pathologies. The models proposed in this study and the prognostic information they provide might aid physician decision making and resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic.