Bayesian causal inference for count potential outcomes

Abstract: The literature for count modeling provides useful tools to conduct causal inference when outcomes take non-negative integer values. Applied to the potential outcomes framework, we link the Bayesian causal inference literature to statistical models for count data. We discuss the general architectural considerations for constructing the predictive posterior of the missing potential outcomes. Special considerations for estimating average treatment effects are discussed, some generalizing certain relationships and some not yet encountered in the causal inference literature.