Continuous Artificial Prediction Markets as a Syndromic Surveillance Technique

Abstract: The main goal of syndromic surveillance systems is early detection of an outbreak in a society using available data sources. In this paper, we discuss what are the challenges of syndromic surveillance systems and how continuous Artificial Prediction Market [Jahedpari et al., 2017] can effectively be applied to the problem of syndromic surveillance. We use two well-known models of (i) Google Flu Trends, and (ii) the latest improvement of Google Flu Trends model, named as GP [Lampos et al., 2015], as our case study and we show how c-APM can improve upon their performance. Our results demonstrate that c-APM typically has a lower MAE to that of Google Flu Trends in each year. Though this difference is relatively small in some years like 2004 and 2007, it is relatively large in most years and very large between 2011 and 2013.