Long-timescale predictions from short-trajectory data: A benchmark analysis of the trp-cage miniprotein

Abstract: Elucidating physical mechanisms with statistical confidence from molecular dynamics simulations can be challenging owing to the many degrees of freedom that contribute to collective motions. To address this issue, we recently introduced a dynamical Galerkin approximation (DGA) [Thiede et al. J. Phys. Chem. 150, 244111 (2019)], in which chemical kinetic statistics that satisfy equations of dynamical operators are represented by a basis expansion. Here, we reformulate this approach, clarifying (and reducing) the dependence on the choice of lag time. We present a new projection of the reactive current onto collective variables and provide improved estimators for rates and committors. We also present simple procedures for constructing suitable smoothly varying basis functions from arbitrary molecular features. To evaluate estimators and basis sets numerically, we generate and carefully validate a dataset of short trajectories for the unfolding and folding of the trp-cage miniprotein, a well-studied system. Our analysis demonstrates a comprehensive strategy for characterizing reaction pathways quantitatively.