Knowing What You Know: Calibrating Dialogue Belief State Distributions via Ensembles

Abstract: The ability to accurately track what happens during a conversation is essential for the performance of a dialogue system. Current state-of-the-art multi-domain dialogue state trackers achieve just over 55% accuracy on the current go-to benchmark, which means that in almost every second dialogue turn they place full confidence in an incorrect dialogue state. Belief trackers, on the other hand, maintain a distribution over possible dialogue states. However, they lack in performance compared to dialogue state trackers, and do not produce well calibrated distributions. In this work we present state-of-the-art performance in calibration for multi-domain dialogue belief trackers using a calibrated ensemble of models. Our resulting dialogue belief tracker also outperforms previous dialogue belief tracking models in terms of accuracy.