Change point detection for COVID-19 excess deaths in Belgium

Abstract: Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat to people worldwide. Apart from the deaths who tested positive for COVID-19, many others have died from causes indirectly related to COVID-19. Therefore, the COVID-19 confirmed deaths underestimate the influence of the pandemic on the society; instead, the measure of excess deaths' is a more objective and comparable way to assess the scale of the epidemic and formulate lessons. One common practical issue in analyzing the impact of COVID-19 is to determine thepre-COVID-19' period and the `post-COVID-19' period. We apply a change point detection method to identify any change points using the excess deaths in Belgium.