Effects of thermal inversion induced air pollution on COVID-19

Abstract: Air pollution is a threat to human health, in particular since it aggravates respiratory diseases. Early COVID-19 outbreaks in Wuhan, China and Lombardy, Italy coincided with high levels of air pollution drawing attention to a potential role of particulate matter and other pollutants in infections and more severe outcomes of the new lung disease. Both air pollution and COVID-19 outcomes are driven by human mobility and economic activity leading to spurious correlations in regression estimates. We use district-level panel data from Belgium, Brazil, Germany, Italy, the UK, and the US to estimate the impact of daily variation in air pollution levels on COVID-19 infections and deaths. Using random variation in air pollution generated by thermal inversions, we rule out that changes in mobility and economic activity are driving the results. We find that a 1%-increase in air pollution levels over the three preceding weeks leads to a 1.5% increase in weekly cases. A 1%-increase in air pollution over four weeks leads to 5.1% more COVID-19 deaths. These results indicate that short-term measures to reduce air pollution can help mitigate the health damages of the virus.