Data-driven optimal control of a SEIR model for COVID-19

Abstract: We present a data-driven optimal control approach which integrates the reported partial data with the epidemic dynamics for COVID-19. We use a basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, the model parameters are time-varying and learned from the data. This approach serves to forecast the evolution of the outbreak over a relatively short time period and provide scheduled controls of the epidemic. We provide efficient numerical algorithms based on a generalized Pontryagin Maximum Principle associated with the optimal control theory. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effective performance of the proposed model and its numerical approximations.