A lower prevalence for recessive disorders in a random mating population is a transient phenomenon during and after a growth phase

Abstract: Despite increasing data from population-wide sequencing studies, the risk for recessive disorders in consanguineous partnerships is still heavily debated. An important aspect that has not sufficiently been investigated theoretically, is the influence of inbreeding on mutation load and incidence rates when the population sizes change. We therefore developed a model to study these dynamics for a wide range of growth and mating conditions. In the phase of population expansion and shortly afterwards, our simulations show that there is a drop of diseased individuals at the expense of an increasing mutation load for random mating, while both parameters remain almost constant in highly consanguineous partnerships. This explains the empirical observation in present times that a high degree of consanguinity is associated with an increased risk of autosomal recessive disorders. However, it also states that the higher frequency of severe recessive disorders with developmental delay in inbred populations is a transient phenomenon before a mutation-selection balance is reached again.