Modeling confirmation bias and peer pressure in opinion dynamics

Abstract: Confirmation bias and peer pressure both have substantial impacts on the formation of collective decisions. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to study how the interplay between these two mechanisms affects public opinion evolution. Here we propose an agent-based model of opinion dynamics which incorporates the conjugate effect of confirmation bias (characterized by the population identity scope and individual stubbornness) and peer pressure (described by a susceptibility threshold). We show that the number of opinion fragments first increases and then decreases to one as population identity scope becomes larger in a homogeneous population. Further, in heterogeneous situations, we find that even a small fraction of impressionable individuals who are sensitive to peer pressure could help eliminate public polarization when population identity scope is relatively large. Intriguingly, we highlight the emergence of 'impressionable moderates' who are easily influenced, hold wavering opinions, and are of vital significance in competitive campaigns.