Adaptive Estimation for Non-stationary Factor Models And A Test for Static Factor Loadings

Abstract: This paper considers the estimation and testing of a class of locally stationary time series factor models with evolutionary temporal dynamics. In particular, the entries and the dimension of the factor loading matrix are allowed to vary with time while the factors and the idiosyncratic noise components are locally stationary. We propose an adaptive sieve estimator for the span of the varying loading matrix and the locally stationary factor processes. A uniformly consistent estimator of the effective number of factors is investigated via eigenanalysis of a non-negative definite time-varying matrix. A possibly high-dimensional bootstrap-assisted test for the hypothesis of static factor loadings is proposed by comparing the kernels of the covariance matrices of the whole time series with their local counterparts. We examine our estimator and test via simulation studies and real data analysis. Finally, all our results hold at the following popular but distinct assumptions: (a) the white noise idiosyncratic errors with either fixed or diverging dimension, and (b) the correlated idiosyncratic errors with diverging dimension.