Causal Inference under Network Interference with Noise

Abstract: Increasingly, there is a marked interest in estimating causal effects under network interference due to the fact that interference manifests naturally in networked experiments. However, network information generally is available only up to some level of error. We study the propagation of such errors to estimators of average causal effects under network interference. Specifically, assuming a four-level exposure model and Bernoulli random assignment of treatment, we characterize the impact of network noise on the bias and variance of standard estimators in homogeneous and inhomogeneous networks. In addition, we propose method-of-moments estimators for bias reduction where a minimal number of network replicates are available. We show our estimators are asymptotically normal and provide confidence intervals for quantifying the uncertainty in these estimates. We illustrate the practical performance of our estimators through simulation studies in British secondary school contact networks.