Post-processing Multi-Model Medium-Term Precipitation Forecasts Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Abstract: The goal of this study was to improve the post-processing of precipitation forecasts using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Instead of post-processing forecasts on a per-pixel basis, as is usually done when employing machine learning in meteorological post-processing, input forecast images were combined and transformed into probabilistic output forecast images using fully convolutional neural networks. CNNs did not outperform regularized logistic regression. Additionally, an ablation analysis was performed. Combining input forecasts from a global low-resolution weather model and a regional high-resolution weather model improved performance over either one.