Risk-Aware Dimensioning and Procurement of Contingency Reserve

Abstract: Current contingency reserve criteria ignore the likelihood of individual contingencies and, thus, their impact on system reliability and risk. This paper develops an iterative approach, inspired by the current security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) practice, enabling system operators to determine risk-cognizant contingency reserve requirements and their allocation with minimal alterations to the current SCUC practice. The proposed approach uses generator and transmission system reliability models, including failure-to synchronize and adverse conditions, to compute contingency probabilities, which inform a risk-based system reliability assessment, and ensures reserve deliverability by learning the response of generators to post-contingency states within the SCUC. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated using the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium update of the Reliability Test System.