Spousal Occupational Sorting and COVID-19 Incidence: Evidence from the United States

Abstract: How do matching of spouses and the nature of work jointly shape the distribution of COVID-19 health risks? To address this question, I study the association between the incidence of COVID-19 and the degree of spousal sorting into occupations that differ by contact intensity at the workplace. The mechanism, that I explore, implies that the higher degree of positive spousal sorting mitigates intra-household contagion and this translates into a smaller number of individuals exposed to COVID-19 risk. Using the U.S. data at the state level, I argue that spousal sorting is an important factor for understanding the disparities in the prevalence of COVID-19 during the early stages of the pandemic. First, I document that it creates about two-thirds of the U.S. dual-earner couples that are exposed to higher COVID-19 health risk due to within-household transmission. Moreover, I uncover substantial heterogeneity in the degree of spousal sorting by state. Next, for the first week of April 2020, I estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the measure of spousal sorting is associated with a 30% reduction in the total number of cases per 100000 inhabitants and a 39.3% decline in the total number of deaths per 100000 inhabitants. Furthermore, I find substantial temporal heterogeneity as the coefficients decline in magnitude over time. My results speak to the importance of policies that allow mitigating intra-household contagion.