Mapping of Covid-19 Risk Factors of Cities and Regencies in Indonesia during the Initial Stages of the Pandemic

Abstract: The aims of this study are to identify risk factors and develop a composite risk factor of initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic in regency level in Indonesia. Three risk factors, i.e., exposure, transmission and susceptibility, are investigated. Multivariate regression, and Canonical correlation analysis are implemented to measure the association between the risk factors and the initial stage of reported COVID -19 cases. The result reveals strong correlation between the composite risk factor and the number of COVID-19 cases at the initial stage of pandemic. The influence of population density, percentage of people commuting, international exposures, and number of public places which prone to COVID-19 transmission are observed. Large regencies and cities, mostly in Java, have high risk score. The largest risk score owned by regencies that are part of the Jakarta Metropolitan Area.