Uncertainty Set Prediction of Aggregated Wind Power Generation based on Bayesian LSTM and Spatio-Temporal Analysis

Abstract: Aggregated stochastic characteristics of geographically distributed wind generation will provide valuable information for secured and economical system operation in electricity markets. This paper focuses on the uncertainty set prediction of the aggregated generation of geographically distributed wind farms. A Spatio-temporal model is proposed to learn the dynamic features from partial observation in near-surface wind fields of neighboring wind farms. We use Bayesian LSTM, a probabilistic prediction model, to obtain the uncertainty set of the generation in individual wind farms. Then, spatial correlation between different wind farms is presented to correct the output results. Numerical testing results based on the actual data with 6 wind farms in northwest China show that the uncertainty set of aggregated wind generation of distributed wind farms is less volatile than that of a single wind farm.