Empirically estimating the distribution of the loudest candidate from a gravitational-wave search

Abstract: Searches for gravitational-wave signals are often based on maximizing a detection statistic over a bank of waveform templates, covering a given parameter space with a variable level of correlation. Results are often evaluated using a noise-hypothesis test, where the background is characterized by the sampling distribution of the loudest template. In the context of continuous gravitational-wave searches, properly describing said distribution is an open problem: current approaches focus on a particular detection statistic and neglect template-bank correlations. We introduce a new approach using extreme value theory to describe the distribution of the loudest template's detection statistic in an arbitrary template bank. Our new proposal automatically generalizes to a wider class of detection statistics, including (but not limited to) line-robust statistics and transient continuous-wave signal hypotheses, and improves the estimation of the expected maximum detection statistic at a negligible computing cost. The performance of our proposal is demonstrated on simulated data as well as by applying it to different kinds of (transient) continuous-wave searches using O2 Advanced LIGO data. We release an accompanying Python software package, distromax, implementing our new developments.