Probability distribution for exceptional sequences of type $A_n$

Abstract: We determine the probability distribution for relative projective objects in an exceptional sequence of type $A_n$ of any length. We show that these events (the $j$-th object in an exceptional sequence of length $k\le n$ being relatively projective) are independent of each other and from the length of the sequence. This gives a probabilistic interpretation of the product formula for the number of exceptional sequences of length $k$ and clusters or partial clusters of size $k$ since the latter numbers are proportional to the number of signed exceptional sequences of length $k$.