Trade-offs in the design and communication of flood-risk information

Abstract: There is an increasingly urgent need to develop knowledge and practices to manage climate risks. For example, flood-risk information can inform household decisions such as purchasing a home or flood insurance. However, flood-risk estimates are deeply uncertain, meaning that they are subject to sizeable disagreement. Available flood-risk estimates provide inconsistent and incomplete information and pose communication challenges. The effects of different choices of design and communication options can create confusion in decision-making processes. The climate services literature includes insights into desirable features for producing information that is credible and relevant. Using examples of riverine (fluvial) flood-risk information products and studies in the United States, we assess how existing risk characterizations integrate desirable features outlined in the climate services literature. Improved characterization and communication of decision-relevant (and often deep) uncertainties, including those arising from human decisions, is a crucial next step. We argue that producing relevant flood-risk information requires applying principles of open science and co-production.