Realistic observing scenarios for the next decade of early warning detection of binary neutron stars

Abstract: We describe realistic observing scenarios for early warning detection of binary neutron star mergers with the current generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors as these approach design sensitivity. Using Fisher analysis, we estimate that Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo will detect one signal before merger in their fourth observing run provided they maintain a 70\% duty cycle. 60\% of all observations and 8\% of those detectable 20 seconds before merger will be localized to $\lesssim 100 \thinspace \mathrm{deg}^2$. If KAGRA is able to achieve a 25 Mpc horizon, these prospects increase to $\lesssim 2$ early detections with 70\% of all BNS localized to $\lesssim 100 \thinspace \mathrm{deg}^2$ by merger. As the AHKLV network approaches design sensitivity over the next $\sim10$ years, we expect up to 1 (14) detections made 100 (10) seconds before merger. Although adding detectors to the HLV network impacts the detection rate at $\lesssim 50\%$ level, it improves localization prospects and increases the completeness of compact binary surveys. Given uncertainties in sensitivities, participating detectors, and duty cycles, we consider 103 future detector configurations so electromagnetic observers can tailor preparations towards their preferred models.