Meta-Learning Approaches for a One-Shot Collective-Decision Aggregation: Correctly Choosing how to Choose Correctly

Abstract: Aggregating successfully the choices regarding a given decision problem made by the multiple collective members into a single solution is essential for exploiting the collective's intelligence and for effective crowdsourcing. There are various aggregation techniques, some of which come down to a simple and sometimes effective deterministic aggregation rule. However, it has been shown that the efficiency of those techniques is unstable under varying conditions and within different domains. Other methods mainly rely on learning from the decision-makers previous responses or the availability of additional information about them. In this study, we present two one-shot machine-learning-based aggregation approaches. The first predicts, given multiple features about the collective's choices, including meta-cognitive ones, which aggregation method will be best for a given case. The second directly predicts which decision is optimal, given, among other things, the selection made by each method. We offer a meta-cognitive feature-engineering approach for characterizing a collective decision-making case in a context-sensitive fashion. In addition, we offer a new aggregation method, the Devil's-Advocate aggregator, to deal with cases in which standard aggregation methods are predicted to fail. Experimental results show that using either of our proposed approaches increases the percentage of successfully aggregated cases (i.e., cases in which the correct answer is returned) significantly, compared to the uniform application of each rule-based aggregation method. We also demonstrate the importance of the Devil's Advocate aggregator.