Sequential Importance Sampling for Hybrid Model Bayesian Inference to Support Bioprocess Mechanism Learning and Robust Control

Abstract: Driven by the critical needs of biomanufacturing 4.0, we introduce a probabilistic knowledge graph hybrid model characterizing the risk- and science-based understanding of bioprocess mechanisms. It can faithfully capture the important properties, including nonlinear reactions, partially observed state, and nonstationary dynamics. Given very limited real process observations, we derive a posterior distribution quantifying model estimation uncertainty. To avoid the evaluation of intractable likelihoods, Approximate Bayesian Computation sampling with Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) is utilized to approximate the posterior distribution. Under high stochastic and model uncertainties, it is computationally expensive to match output trajectories. Therefore, we create a linear Gaussian dynamic Bayesian network (LG-DBN) auxiliary likelihood-based ABC-SMC approach. Through matching the summary statistics driven through LG-DBN likelihood that can capture critical interactions and variations, the proposed algorithm can accelerate hybrid model inference, support process monitoring, and facilitate mechanism learning and robust control.