Feedback Dynamics of the Low-Income Rental Housing Market: Exploring Policy Responses to COVID-19

Abstract: The COVID-19 recession threatens mass housing insecurity that undermines economic recovery. Unprecedented federal policy responses halt court-ordered evictions, but questions remain whether policies adequately account for dynamics that drive landlord-tenant interactions including accumulations of rental and mortgage arrears, rental unit availability, and low-income housing options. A system dynamics model probes complex feedback dynamics driving tenant and landlord decision-making in the low-income rental housing market pre- and post-pandemic protections. Feedback loops highlight tradeoffs considered by low-income tenants and landlords in the context of scarcity and uncertainty. Simulations suggest the eviction moratorium reduced evictions by 51% before its expiration in late 2021, but rental arrears, overcrowding, and homelessness remained high. Federal emergency rental assistance further contributed to keeping evictions low, but showed only modest effects on housing insecurity and homelessness. More rapid allocation of funds would substantially increase impact. Failure to address underlying financial hardship and limited affordable housing undermine COVID recovery.