Split Localized Conformal Prediction

Abstract: Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger conditional coverage guarantee. Existing methods of approximating conditional coverage require additional models or time effort, which makes them not easy to scale. In this paper, we propose a modified non-conformity score by leveraging the local approximation of the conditional distribution using kernel density estimation. The modified score inherits the spirit of split conformal methods, which is simple and efficient and can scale to high dimensional settings. We also proposed a unified framework that brings together our method and several state-of-the-art. We perform extensive empirical evaluations: results measured by both average and conditional coverage confirm the advantage of our method.