2000 character limit reached
Scoring Rules for Performative Binary Prediction
Published 5 Jul 2022 in cs.LG and cs.AI | (2207.02847v1)
Abstract: We construct a model of expert prediction where predictions can influence the state of the world. Under this model, we show through theoretical and numerical results that proper scoring rules can incentivize experts to manipulate the world with their predictions. We also construct a simple class of scoring rules that avoids this problem.
Paper Prompts
Sign up for free to create and run prompts on this paper using GPT-5.
Top Community Prompts
Collections
Sign up for free to add this paper to one or more collections.