Have we been Naive to Select Machine Learning Models? Noisy Data are here to Stay!

Abstract: The model selection procedure is usually a single-criterion decision making in which we select the model that maximizes a specific metric in a specific set, such as the Validation set performance. We claim this is very naive and can perform poor selections of over-fitted models due to the over-searching phenomenon, which over-estimates the performance on that specific set. Futhermore, real world data contains noise that should not be ignored by the model selection procedure and must be taken into account when performing model selection. Also, we have defined four theoretical optimality conditions that we can pursue to better select the models and analyze them by using a multi-criteria decision-making algorithm (TOPSIS) that considers proxies to the optimality conditions to select reasonable models.