A Study of Long-term Energy-mix Optimization Model: A Case Study in Japan

Abstract: There is a strong need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to deal with climate change. In the power sector, changing the power generation method in the medium and long term is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes a long-term energy-mix optimization mod-el to obtain the process of carbon neutrality in the power system. The proposed model models power supply and demand at an hourly granularity and determines the generation capacity that minimizes the long-term energy supply cost. Compared with the models proposed in previous studies, the proposed model can determine the installed capacity to maintain the balance of power supply and demand by adding the capacity of regulation reserve required by fluctuations in the output of variable renewable energy as a constraint condition. A Japan energy mix calculation is reported as a case study of the proposed model. This model can clarify the roadmap to achieving each country's emission reduction target and support the government's decision-making.