Virtual Control Group: Measuring Hidden Performance Metrics

Abstract: Performance metrics measuring in Financial Integrity systems are crucial for maintaining an efficient and cost effective operation. An important performance metric is False Positive Rate. This metric cannot be directly monitored since we don't know for sure if a user is bad once blocked. We present a statistical method based on survey theory and causal inference methods to estimate the false positive rate of the system or a single blocking policy. We also suggest a new approach of outcome matching that in some cases including empirical data outperformed other commonly used methods. The approaches described in this paper can be applied in other Integrity domains such as Cyber Security.