Empirically grounded agent-based policy evaluation of the adoption of sustainable lighting under the European Ecodesign Directive

Abstract: Twelve years ago, the European Union began with the gradual phase-out of energy-inefficient incandescent light bulbs under the Ecodesign Directive. In this work, we implement an agent-based simulation to model the consumer behaviour in the EU lighting market with the goal to explain consumer behaviour and explore alternative policies. Agents are based on the Consumat II model, have individual preferences based on empirical market research, gather experience from past actions, and socially interact with each other in a dynamic environment. Our findings suggest that the adoption of energy-friendly lighting alternatives was hindered by a low level of consumer interest combined with high-enough levels of satisfaction about incandescent bulbs and that information campaigns can partially address this. These findings offer insight into both individual-level driving forces of behaviour and society-level outcomes in a niche market. With this, our work demonstrates the strengths of agent-based models for policy generation and evaluation.