Exploring the use of Transition Path Theory in building an oil spill prediction scheme

Abstract: The Transition Path Theory (TPT) of complex systems has proven a robust means for statistically characterizing the ensemble of trajectories that connect any two preset flow regions, say $\mathcal A$ and $\mathcal B$, directly. More specifically, transition paths are such that they start in $\mathcal A$ and then go to $\mathcal B$ without detouring back to $\mathcal A$ or $\mathcal B$. This way, they make an effective contribution to the transport from $\mathcal A$ to $\mathcal B$. Here, we explore its use for building a scheme that enables predicting the evolution of an oil spill in the ocean. This involves appropriately adapting TPT such that it includes a reservoir that pumps oil into a typically open domain. Additionally, we lift up the restriction of the oil not to return to the spill site en route to a region that there is interest to be protected. TPT is applied on oil trajectories available up to the present, e.g., as integrated using velocities produced by a data assimilative system or as inferred from high-frequency radars, to make a prediction of transition oil paths beyond, without relying on forecasted oil trajectories. As a proof of concept we consider a hypothetical oil spill in the Trion oil field, under development within the Perdido Foldbelt in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and the \emph{Deepwater Horizon} oil spill. This is done using trajectories integrated from climatological and hindcast surface velocity and winds as well as produced by satellite-tracked surface drifting buoys, in each case discretized into a Markov chain that provides a framework for the TPT-based prediction.