Koopman Reduced Order Modeling with Confidence Bounds

Abstract: This paper introduces a reduced order modeling technique based on Koopman operator theory that gives confidence bounds on the model's predictions. It is based on a data-driven spectral decomposition of the Koopman operator. The reduced order model is constructed using a finite number of Koopman eigenvalues and modes, while the rest of spectrum is treated as a noise process. This noise process is used to extract the confidence bounds. Additionally, we propose a heuristic algorithm to choose the number of deterministic modes to keep in the model.