Near-future discovery of the diffuse flux of ultra-high-energy cosmic neutrinos

Abstract: Ultra-high-energy (UHE) neutrinos, with EeV-scale energies, carry with them unique insight into fundamental open questions in astrophysics and particle physics. For fifty years, they have evaded discovery, but maybe not for much longer, thanks to new UHE neutrino telescopes, presently under development. We capitalize on this upcoming opportunity by producing state-of-the-art forecasts of the discovery of a diffuse flux of UHE neutrinos in the next 10-20 years. By design, our forecasts are anchored in often-overlooked nuance from theory and experiment; we gear them to the radio array of the planned IceCube-Gen2 detector. We find encouraging prospects: even under conservative analysis choices, most benchmark UHE neutrino flux models available in the literature may be discovered within 10 years of detector exposure -- many sooner -- and may be distinguished from each other. Our results validate the transformative potential of next-generation UHE neutrino telescopes.