Discrimination, calibration, and point estimate accuracy of GRU-D-Weibull architecture for real-time individualized endpoint prediction

Abstract: Real-time individual endpoint prediction has always been a challenging task but of great clinic utility for both patients and healthcare providers. With 6,879 chronic kidney disease stage 4 (CKD4) patients as a use case, we explored the feasibility and performance of gated recurrent units with decay that models Weibull probability density function (GRU-D-Weibull) as a semi-parametric longitudinal model for real-time individual endpoint prediction. GRU-D-Weibull has a maximum C-index of 0.77 at 4.3 years of follow-up, compared to 0.68 achieved by competing models. The L1-loss of GRU-D-Weibull is ~66% of XGB(AFT), ~60% of MTLR, and ~30% of AFT model at CKD4 index date. The average absolute L1-loss of GRU-D-Weibull is around one year, with a minimum of 40% Parkes serious error after index date. GRU-D-Weibull is not calibrated and significantly underestimates true survival probability. Feature importance tests indicate blood pressure becomes increasingly important during follow-up, while eGFR and blood albumin are less important. Most continuous features have non-linear/parabola impact on predicted survival time, and the results are generally consistent with existing knowledge. GRU-D-Weibull as a semi-parametric temporal model shows advantages in built-in parameterization of missing, native support for asynchronously arrived measurement, capability of output both probability and point estimates at arbitrary time point for arbitrary prediction horizon, improved discrimination and point estimate accuracy after incorporating newly arrived data. Further research on its performance with more comprehensive input features, in-process or post-process calibration are warranted to benefit CKD4 or alike terminally-ill patients.