Small-time approximation of the transition density for diffusions with singularities. Application to the Wright-Fisher model

Abstract: The Wright-Fisher (W-F) diffusion model serves as a foundational framework for interpreting population evolution through allele frequency dynamics over time. Despite the known transition probability between consecutive generations, an exact analytical expression for the transition density at arbitrary time intervals remains elusive. Commonly utilized distributions such as Gaussian or Beta inadequately address the fixation issue at extreme allele frequencies (0 or 1), particularly for short periods. In this study, we introduce two alternative parametric functions, namely the Asymptotic Expansion (AE) and the Gaussian approximation (GaussA), derived through probabilistic methodologies, aiming to better approximate this density. The AE function provides a suitable density for allele frequency distributions, encompassing extreme values within the interval [0,1]. Additionally, we outline the range of validity for the GaussA approximation. While our primary focus is on W-F diffusion, we demonstrate how our findings extend to other diffusion models featuring singularities. Through simulations of allele frequencies under a W-F process and employing a recently developed adaptive density estimation method, we conduct a comparative analysis to assess the fit of the proposed densities against the Beta and Gaussian distributions.