The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Abstract: Pulsar timing array collaborations, such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), are seeking to detect nanohertz gravitational waves emitted by supermassive black hole binaries formed in the aftermath of galaxy mergers. We have searched for continuous waves from individual circular supermassive black hole binaries using the NANOGrav's recent 12.5-year data set. We created new methods to accurately model the uncertainties on pulsar distances in our analysis, and we implemented new techniques to account for a common red noise process in pulsar timing array data sets while searching for deterministic gravitational wave signals, including continuous waves. As we found no evidence for continuous waves in our data, we placed 95\% upper limits on the strain amplitude of continuous waves emitted by these sources. At our most sensitive frequency of 7.65 nanohertz, we placed a sky-averaged limit of $h_0 < $ $(6.82 \pm 0.35) \times 10^{-15}$, and $h_0 <$ $(2.66 \pm 0.15) \times 10^{-15}$ in our most sensitive sky location. Finally, we placed a multi-messenger limit of $\mathcal{M} <$ $(1.41 \pm 0.02) \times 10^9 M_\odot$ on the chirp mass of the supermassive black hole binary candidate 3C~66B.