Hierarchical multinomial processing tree models for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies

Abstract: Meta-analysis represents a widely accepted approach for evaluating the accuracy of diagnostic tools in clinical and psychological investigations. This paper investigates the applicability of multinomial tree models recently suggested in the literature under a fixed-effects formulation for assessing the accuracy of binary classification tools. The model proposed in this paper extends previous results to a hierarchical structure accounting for the variability between the studies included in the meta-analysis. Interestingly, the resulting hierarchical multinomial tree model resembles the well-known bivariate random-effects model under an exact within-study distribution for the number of true positives and true negatives subjects, with the additional advantage of providing an estimate of the prevalences of disease from each study. The proposal is in line with a latent-trait approach, where inference is performed according to a frequentist point of view. The applicability of the proposed model and its performance with respect to the approximate bivariate random-effects model based on normality assumptions commonly used in the literature is evaluated in a series of simulation studies. Methods are applied to a real meta-analysis about the accuracy of the confusion assessment method as delirium screening tool.