Estimating marginal treatment effects from observational studies and indirect treatment comparisons: When are standardization-based methods preferable to those based on propensity score weighting?

Abstract: In light of newly developed standardization methods, we evaluate, via simulation study, how propensity score weighting and standardization -based approaches compare for obtaining estimates of the marginal odds ratio and the marginal hazard ratio. Specifically, we consider how the two approaches compare in two different scenarios: (1) in a single observational study, and (2) in an anchored indirect treatment comparison (ITC) of randomized controlled trials. We present the material in such a way so that the matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) and the (novel) simulated treatment comparison (STC) methods in the ITC setting may be viewed as analogous to the propensity score weighting and standardization methods in the single observational study setting. Our results suggest that current recommendations for conducting ITCs can be improved and underscore the importance of adjusting for purely prognostic factors.