How Many and Which Training Points Would Need to be Removed to Flip this Prediction?

Abstract: We consider the problem of identifying a minimal subset of training data $\mathcal{S}_t$ such that if the instances comprising $\mathcal{S}_t$ had been removed prior to training, the categorization of a given test point $x_t$ would have been different. Identifying such a set may be of interest for a few reasons. First, the cardinality of $\mathcal{S}_t$ provides a measure of robustness (if $|\mathcal{S}_t|$ is small for $x_t$, we might be less confident in the corresponding prediction), which we show is correlated with but complementary to predicted probabilities. Second, interrogation of $\mathcal{S}_t$ may provide a novel mechanism for contesting a particular model prediction: If one can make the case that the points in $\mathcal{S}_t$ are wrongly labeled or irrelevant, this may argue for overturning the associated prediction. Identifying $\mathcal{S}_t$ via brute-force is intractable. We propose comparatively fast approximation methods to find $\mathcal{S}_t$ based on influence functions, and find that -- for simple convex text classification models -- these approaches can often successfully identify relatively small sets of training examples which, if removed, would flip the prediction.