Online Detection of Changes in Moment-Based Projections: When to Retrain Deep Learners or Update Portfolios?

Abstract: Sequential monitoring of high-dimensional nonlinear time series is studied for a projection of the second-moment matrix, a problem interesting in its own right and specifically arising in finance and deep learning. Open-end as well as closed-end monitoring is studied under mild assumptions on the training sample and the observations of the monitoring period. Asymptotics is based on Gaussian approximations of projected partial sums allowing for an estimated projection vector. Estimation is studied both for classical non-$\ell_0$-sparsity as well as under sparsity. For the case that the optimal projection depends on the unknown covariance matrix, hard- and soft-thresholded estimators are studied. Applications in finance and training of deep neural networks are discussed. The proposed detectors typically allow to reduce dramatically the required computational costs as illustrated by monitoring synthetic data.