Feature Importance: A Closer Look at Shapley Values and LOCO

Abstract: There is much interest lately in explainability in statistics and machine learning. One aspect of explainability is to quantify the importance of various features (or covariates). Two popular methods for defining variable importance are LOCO (Leave Out COvariates) and Shapley Values. We take a look at the properties of these methods and their advantages and disadvantages. We are particularly interested in the effect of correlation between features which can obscure interpretability. Contrary to some claims, Shapley values do not eliminate feature correlation. We critique the game theoretic axioms for Shapley values and suggest some new axioms. We propose new, more statistically oriented axioms for feature importance and some measures that satisfy these axioms. However, correcting for correlation is a Faustian bargain: removing the effect of correlation creates other forms of bias. Ultimately, we recommend a slightly modified version of LOCO. We briefly consider how to modify Shapley values to better address feature correlation.