Cost-damage analysis of attack trees

Abstract: Attack trees (ATs) are a widely deployed modelling technique to categorize potential attacks on a system. An attacker of such a system aims at doing as much damage as possible, but might be limited by a cost budget. The maximum possible damage for a given cost budget is an important security metric of a system. In this paper, we find the maximum damage given a cost budget by modelling this problem with ATs, both in deterministic and probabilistic settings. We show that the general problem is NP-complete, and provide heuristics to solve it. For general ATs these are based on integer linear programming. However when the AT is tree-structured, then one can instead use a faster bottom-up approach. We also extend these methods to other problems related to the cost-damage tradeoff, such as the cost-damage Pareto front.